Six Cannabis Legalization Measures Make the November Ballot

Pre-COVID-19, it appeared as though citizens in as many as 12 states would have the opportunity to vote on medical or adult-use cannabis on Nov. 3, 2020. Had that come to pass, the 2020 election could have eclipsed the monumental events of Nov. 8, 2016, when eight states passed cannabis initiatives. But COVID-19 put a damper on the legalization push in the U.S., as many ballot measures lost steam due to the inability to gather signatures in person. Campaigns for legalization persisted though shelter-in-place orders stopped many signature drives, and with an October 2019 Gallup poll showing 66% support for full legalization, those campaigns that make it to the ballot seem likely to pass.

Canada’s legal cannabis market has soared since the introduction of adult-use sales on Oct. 17, 2018. In 2019, sales of adult-use cannabis neared $1.2 billion while medical continued to grow nationally, though signs of a coming contraction in that channel became apparent as the year ended.

Even so, the market is growing more slowly than the forecast in “The State of Legal Cannabis Markets, 8^th Edition” published earlier in 2020 by Arcview Market Research and BDSA. In accordance with this slower than anticipated growth, the forecast for 2020 adult-use spending has been adjusted down to $2.1 billion from the previous forecast of $2.4 billion, while medical spending in 2020 has been adjusted down to $402 million from $470 million.

The cannabis industry is faring remarkably well, despite – or, likely, because of – the global COVID-19 pandemic, according to BDSA’s analysis of retail sales tracking data year-to-date 2020.

Nearly every jurisdiction in the United States and Canada declared cannabis an essential service and most cannabis retailers remained open during the pandemic, and consumers have continued shopping, though their behaviors have changed somewhat during the crisis.

Once the fastest-growing product category in cannabis, vapes were the focus of the industry’s first public health crisis with the appearance of E-cigarette and Vaping Product Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) in late summer 2019. Despite seeing ups and down in the first half of 2020, in part due to the impact of COVID-19, vape sales are on the rise again, and are likely to surpass summer 2019’s  peak in sales by the end of 2020.

Why Providing Market Forecasts, Retail Sales Tracking and Consumer Insights Makes BDSA the Most Reliable Data Source in the Industry

Cannabis consumers are a diverse group, as clearly demonstrated by BDSA’s consumer research. At the highest level, BDSA divides respondents into:

When Colorado first launched adult-use (recreational) sales in 2014, the existing medical market opened up to a wave of new consumers, including those from the sizable illicit market as well as new consumers who previously had little or no experience with cannabis.

The popularity of CBD products has exploded in the U.S. in recent years, with sales in the U.S. cannabis dispensary channel alone rising from $8.4 million in May 2016 to $56.9 million in May 2020. And hemp-derived CBD products, containing less than 0.3% THC, are increasingly available via general retail channels, though CBD ingestibles are still officially off limits for sale in general retail channels in the U.S. and most other jurisdictions.

The legal cannabis market has exploded in recent years, with sales in the U.S. reaching an estimated $12.4 billion in 2019, forecast to rise to $31 billion by 2024. The market for cannabidiol (CBD) has also grown rapidly, with U.S. sales totaling $2.6 billion in 2019, on track to reach $18 billion by 2024. While THC and CBD are the most widely known and marketed compounds found in Cannabis sativa, a few of the other 113 currently identified cannabinoids show potential for therapeutic and recreational applications and have attracted the attention of both researchers and those in the industry.

Global legal cannabis spending is forecast to reach $47 billion in 2025, a number too big to ignore for many companies and industries. The U.S. will continue to be the largest global market, driven by more and more adult use markets opening.